System Dynamics for Railway Infrastructure Protection

The railway infrastructure represents, for its symbolic value and accessibility, a very attractive target for criminals and terrorists alike. This paper intends to address the security issues of such systems, beginning with the railway stations themselves., The peculiarities of the railway infrastructure, in terms of geographical dispersion and mass transportation, present a formidable challenge considering the ratio of limited resources against the most vulnerable components, (i.e. stations that show the largest gap between terrorist attractiveness and implemented counter-measures). To this end, we used a System Dynamics approach to model how the different factors influence the railway station target attractiveness, fragility and vulnerability. Specifically, a deep analysis of past incidents (and near incidents) allows us to quantify the effectiveness of the different elements.