A pathology-based combined model to identify pam50 non-luminal intrinsic disease in hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative breast cancer

Background: In hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/HER2-negative breast cancer, the HER2-enriched and Basal-like intrinsic subtypes are associated with poor outcome, low response to anti-estrogen therapy and high response to chemotherapy. To date, no validated biomarker exists to identify both molecular entities other than gene expression. Methods: PAM50 subtyping and immunohistochemical data were obtained from 8 independent studies of 1,416 HR+/HER2-negative early breast tumors. A non-luminal disease score (NOLUS) from 0 to 100, based on percentage of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and Ki67 tumor cells, was derived in a combined cohort of 5 studies (training dataset) and tested in a combined cohort of 3 studies. The performance of NOLUS was estimated using Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). Results: In the training dataset (n = 903) and compared to luminal disease, non-luminal disease had lower percentage of ER-positive cells (median 65.2 vs. 86.2%, p < 0.01) and PR-positive cells (33.2 vs. 56.4%, p < 0.01) and higher percentage of Ki67-positive cells (18.2 vs. 13.1%, p = 0.01). A NOLUS formula was derived: -0.45*ER -0.28*PR +0.27*Ki67 + 73.02. The proportion of non-luminal tumors in NOLUS-positive (≥51.38) and NOLUS-negative (<51.38) groups was 52.6 and 8.7%, respectively. In the testing dataset (n = 514), NOLUS was found significantly associated with non-luminal disease (p < 0.01) with an AUC 0.902. The proportion of non-luminal tumors in NOLUS-positive and NOLUS-negative groups was 76.9% (56.4-91.0%) and 2.6% (1.4-4.5%), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the pre-specified cutoff was 59.3 and 98.7%, respectively. Conclusions: In the absence of gene expression data, NOLUS can help identify non-luminal disease within HR+/HER2-negative breast cancer.